Regierung stellt Programm zur Steigerung
der Produktion vor. Zahlen eher ernüchternd, Inflation hoch. Regierung und
Von Richard Tillmann
ARGENTINIEN befindet sich wirtschaftlich
weiterhin auf Talfahrt. Nun hat die Regierung um Präsident Mauricio Macri einen
neuen Wirtschaftsplan angekündigt. Dieser "Nationale Produktionsplan"
(Plan Productivo Nacional, PPN) soll dabei helfen, verschiedene Branchen
umzustrukturieren und effizienter zu machen.
Der PPN soll argentinische Unternehmen
zugleich konkurrenzfähiger machen und besser in den Weltmarkt integrieren.
Gleichzeitig sollen die Preise spezifischer Produkte gesenkt und mehr
qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte ausgebildet werden. Die vorgesehenen Maßnahmen wie
etwa Kapitalkostensenkungen, Steuerreformen und Innovationsförderung betreffen
hauptsächlich die heimische Elektronik-, Textil- und Autoindustrie.
Bereits mit großer Spannung werden die
Auswirkungen dieser Maßnahmen auf die Insel-Provinz Feuerland erwartet.
Nirgendwo anders im Land sind die Produktionskosten so hoch und nirgendwo ist
ein derart großer Anteil der Bevölkerung (über 10.000 Menschen) in der
Elektronikindustrie tätig. Das ist auch ein Resultat der Regionalpolitik von
Ex-Präsidentin Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
VERLUST DER KAUFKRAFT VON FAST ZEHN PROZENT
Ein Aufschwung der argentinischen
Industrie würde sich mit größter Wahrscheinlichkeit positiv auf die seit
längerer Zeit andauernde Inflation auswirken. Nach wie vor steigen in ARGENTINIEN
die Preise und Lebenskosten monatlich um mehrere Prozentpunkte an. Vor diesem
Hintergrund überraschte Präsident Macri mit der Aussage, dass die Diskussionen
rund um das Thema Inflation in die Irre führten und er der Zukunft optimistisch
entgegensehe. Ein Blick auf aktuelle Zahlen und Fakten zeigen die
Realitätsferne dieser Aussage.
Die Inflation stieg in der ersten Hälfte
des Jahres 2016 um über 27 Prozent auf einen kumulierten Jahresvergleichswert
von rund 45 Prozent. Die steigenden Lebenshaltungskosten wirkten sich wiederum
auf den Gesamtkonsum aus. Dieser ging im Juni 2016 im Vergleich zum Vormonat um
6,4 Prozent zurück. Seit dem Amtsantritt Macris ist zudem ein Verlust der
Kaufkraft von fast zehn Prozent zu verzeichnen. Aufgrund von
Produktionsproblemen droht aktuell ein landesweiter Engpass an Lebensmitteln
des täglichen Gebrauchs.
Ein weiteres gravierendes
Wirtschaftsproblem sind die konstant wachsenden Schulden der Nation und der
Provinzen. In der vergangenen Woche traf sich Macri mit den 23 argentinischen
Gouverneuren in seinem Amtssitz Casa Rosada. Gemeinsam wurden Abmachungen
getroffen, um die Haushalte aller Provinzen bis 2019 auszugleichen. Deren
Gesamtschulden hatten sich Ende 2015 auf 95 Milliarden Peso (gut 5,7 Milliarden
Euro) belaufen. Allein die einwohnerstärkste Provinz Buenos Aires hat über 20
Milliarden Peso (gut 1,2 Milliarden Euro) Schulden.
Argentiniens Bundesregierung informierte
bereits Ende Juli, dass das primäre Staatshaushaltsdefizit - ohne Finanzertrag
- für den Monat Juni über 45 Milliarden Peso (gut 2,7 Milliarden Euro) beträgt.
Betrachtet auf die ganze erste Jahreshälfte von 2016 beläuft es sich sogar auf
über 133 Milliarden Peso (knapp acht Milliarden Euro). Wie die Tageszeitung
Clarín berichtet, handle es sich dabei um einen zu tiefen,
"beschönigten" Wert. Zudem weist sie darauf hin, dass der Staatskasse
einerseits Steuereinnahmen von Exportwaren wegen rückläufigen Verkaufszahlen
und Steuersenkungsreformen fehlen, anderseits Mehrwertsteuereinnahmen aufgrund
des sinkenden Konsums.
Während Ex-Finanzsekretär Guillermo
Nielsen eine düstere Zukunft prognostiziert, erhoffen sich andere neue Impulse
dank ausländischer Investitionen. Argentinien sei auf globalem Niveau wieder
glaubwürdig, schreibt die Tageszeitung La Nación und berichtet über
ausländische Investitionsversprechen von mehr als 170 Milliarden US-Dollar.
Während lateinamerikanische Länder wie Brasilien (70 Milliarden US-Dollar),
Mexiko (30-40 Milliarden US-Dollar) und Chile (20 Milliarden US-Dollar) in den
vergangenen Jahren hohe Investitionen anlockten, lag Argentinien mit jährlich
nur sieben bis elf Milliarden US-Dollar am Ende der Skala.
Dass jedoch im Ringen um ausländische
Investitionen die Inflation ein riesiges Handicap ist, dürfte selbst der
Regierung Macri klar sein. Carlos Balter, Präsident der Demokratischen Partei
Mendoza, sieht zudem die Regierung vor einem gewaltigen wirtschaftspolitischen
Dilemma zwischen den Haushaltsschulden und der wirtschaftlichen Öffnung des
Landes: Es sei schier unmöglich, angemessene Wirtschaftsreformen zu ergreifen,
die der eigenen Volkswirtschaft nützen und gleichzeitig den exportorientierten
Unternehmen nicht schaden.
too long tolerated leaves democracy on the auction block, subject to the
At a time when shortages and the
increase in public services rates are the most important concerns of the
Argentinian population, President MAURICIO MACRI affirms that inflation is an
illusion and that he is optimistic about the country’s future.
In statements he gave to the TV
station Telefe, MACRI expressed that “inflation is decreasing and next year it
will be less than 20 per cent. Inflation
is a lie, it was imposed”.
PUTTING THE BLAME ON PREVIOUS GOVERNMENTS HAS BEEN AN ARGENTINE
TRAIT FOR THE PAST 33 YEARS
He repeated once again that he is
working “so that people can live better” and insisted that he can’t reverse the
economic adjustments after so many years of incorrect policies —in reference to
previous government lead by NESTOR KIRCHNER and CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ.
His latest appearance took place
after thousands of people carried out “piquetes” and “common cooking pot” in
100 different spots in BUENOS AIRES City, to protest against unemployment and
the increase in the living cost. Also, a “cacerolazo” was heard all across the
country against the raise in the electric power, gas and water rates. The
unrest was of course never broadcast by the dominant government loyal media. According
to “establishment” media of ARGENTINA the country is doing superb………………….
THE THREAT OF CIVIL UNREST LOOMING OVER ARGENTINA
Official figures contradict the
President’s speech, because in the first months of the year, inflation rates
went up by 27% reaching an annual accumulationof 43 to 45%,according to studies carried out
by a consultancy firm. It was MACRI who accused the previous government of
falsifying inflation statistics and thus seems to have taking a liking in it,
but of course the local media would never point the finger at him. For they won
the election for him through intense social engineering.
Symbol for Argentine Government change 2001: President De la Rua flees by helicopter from Casa Rosada
The cost of life has forced the
population to change their consumption habits, which dropped again in June,
this time by 6,4%, especially regarding the consumption of food, a drop that
was already notorious in the first trimester, with a drop of 3,6%. A study
carried out by Scentia shows that the areas that suffered the worst contraction
were cleaning products, cosmetics and toiletries, non-perishable food,
alcoholic beverages, water and sodas. On the other hand, the fuel consumption
decreased by 3,07%, which puts gas stations at risk, as warned by the
Confederation of Hydrocarbon Commerce Entities of ARGENTINA.
In this context in which the cost
of living is increasing, a study showed that for a four-member family not to
fall under the category of “poor” in BUENOS AIRES city, they needed, in June, a
monthly income of, at least, 12,709 pesos (that is, 850 dollars). And a minimum
of 6,307 pesos (420 dollars) not to be considered “indigents”, as the General
Direction of Statistics and Census of the City government revealed in its study
on the Indigence and Poverty Line for the houses of BUENOS AIRES cities. The
study measures the economic needs of five types of households, but it uses a
model family: a 35 year-old couple, both economically active, property owners,
with 2 children, aged 9 and 6. Many families in BUENOS AIRES don’t own a house
but rent, which means they would need between 6,000 and 8,000 pesos more (400
to 533 dollars) not to fall below the poverty line.
In December 2015 vassal “managers”
seized power in ARGENTINA where millionaire MAURICIO MACRI ruled by decree, by-passing constitutional legality. MACRI fired scores of thousands
of public service workers, closed social agencies and appointed judges and
prosecutors without Congressional vote. He arbitrarily arrested social movement
leaders - violating democratic procedures.
MACRI’S Economic and Finance Ministersgained millions of dollars by ‘buying into’
multinational oil companies just prior to handing over private options on
public enterprises. (Now ARGENTINA is importing gas from “SHELL” at higher
rates then when it used to buy from BOLIVIA!)
CURRENT ADMINISTRATIONS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IS DISASTROUS
The all-encompassing swindles and
fraud carried out by the ‘new managers’ were covered up by the US media, who
praised MACRI’S professional team.
Moreover, MACRI’S economic performance was a disaster. Exorbitant user fees on utilities and transport for
consumers and business enterprises, increased three to ten-fold, forcing
bankruptcy rates to soar and households to suffer light and gas closures.
Wall Street vulture funds
received seven billion dollar payment
from MACRI’S managers, for defaulted loans purchased for pennies over a dollar,
twenty-fold greater than the original lenders.
based on standard economic indicators, highlights the worst economic
performance in a decade and a half.
inflation exceeds 40%; public debt increased by twenty percent in six months.
Living standards and employment
sharply declined. Growth and investment data was negative. Mismanagement,
official corruption and arbitrary governance, did not induce confidence among
local small and medium size businesses.
CALCULATED MOVE BY THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: BANKERS
TURNED INTO CABINET MINISTERS
“respectable media”, led by the NEW YORK TIMES, the FINANCIAL TIMES, the WALL
STREET JOURNAL, WASHINGTON POST, as well as ARGENTINE newspapers such as CLARIN
and LA NACION falsified every aspect of MACRI’S regime. The current regime,
together with the CLARIN conglomerate are currently conducting large scale “Social
Engineering” in ARGENTINA.
Failed economic policies
implemented by bankers turned cabinet ministers were dubbed long-term
successes; crude ideologically driven policies promoting foreign investor
profiteering were re-invented as business incentives.
Political thugs dismantled and
replaced civil service agencies were labelled ‘a new management team’ by the
vulgar propaganda scribes of the financial press.
Social engineering is a discipline in social science that refers to efforts to influence particular attitudes and social behaviors on a large scale, whether by governments, media such as the CLARIN conglomerateor private groups in order to produce desired characteristics in a target population.
Social engineering can also be understood philosophically as a deterministic phenomenon where the intentions and goals of the architects of the new social construct are realized.
Social engineers use the scientific method to analyze and understand social systems in order to design the appropriate methods to achieve the desired results in the human subjects.
Social engineering can be carried out by any organization, without regard to scale, or sponsorship in the public or private sector. Some of the most comprehensive, and most pervasive campaigns of social engineering are those initiated by powerful central governments with the systems of authority to widely affect the individuals and cultures within their purview.
Extremely intensive social engineering campaigns occurred in countries with authoritarian governments. In ARGENTINA’S case the pro government media, which accounts for almost 90%, has done so by simply feeding the public carefully selected information that in most cases does not concur to reality.
Discussion of the possibilities for manipulation became especially active following the close win of the presidential elections by Macri. With the advent of mass television, social networks and continuing discussion of techniques of social engineering, particularly in advertising, and bias-based journalism, such approaches remain quite pertinent in the western model of consumer capitalism. Journalism, when the intent is not to report objectively, but to report with an intent to sway popular attitudes and social behaviors or to "shape public opinion", comes under the scope of social engineering, which is clearly the case in ARGENTINA under the rule of Macri.
This also applies when information that would bring into question the viewpoints and social goals of a journalistic establishment is withheld in favor of other information.
“President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN prepared a
list of targets for arrest even before the coup (sic) was launched”, EUROPEAN Commission
official on TURKEY (quoted in FT, 7/19/2016).
COUP IN TURKEY WAS MADE TO ORDER.
A group of military officers and
police officials were set-up to seize power by senior intelligence operatives
in the ERDOĞAN regime. They were allowed to drop a few bombs, seize bridges and
buildings before they were encircled, rounded-up and arrested using a list of
targets for arrest prepared even before the so-called coup. In the midst of
this fake coup, the ‘vacationing’ ERDOĞAN flies into ISTANBUL unharmed, of
course, because his vacation resort was bombed after he had left. He seizes the
mass media, denounces the coup, rouses the Muslim masses and sets about on a
mass purge of TURKISH society, concentrating on the civil service, teachers and
administrators, the military, the courts and judges. Indeed every institution
capable of independent action or reputedly critical of ERDOĞAN is closed. After
a week over 60,000 people had been purged.
Why did ERDOĞAN purge TURKISH
What policies will follow ERDOĞAN’S
TO THE COUP
Over the past 5 years ERDOĞAN has
suffered a series of political, economic and diplomatic failures and defeats,
seriously undermining his dictatorial and territorial ambitions. His air force
shot down a RUSSIAN military jet operating within SYRIAN territory. The images
of TURKISH jihadi mercenaries murdering a RUSSIAN pilot as he parachuted to
safety, as well as a member of the RUSSIAN rescue party, caused the RUSSIAN
government to halt the multi-billion-dollar RUSSIAN tourism industry in TURKEY
and cancel lucrative business deals. He broke relations with ISRAEL, which
undercut a lucrative gas and oil offshore contract. His support for ISIS and
other violent Salafist mercenary groups operating in IRAQ and SYRIA provoked a
rupture with SYRIA and IRAN. His subsequent effort to disavow TURKEY’S links
with ISIS led to a series of horrific terror bombings by jihadi cells implanted
in the country. TURKEY’S diplomatic position in EGYPT deteriorated as ERDOĞAN
sought to maintain his ties with the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD after it had been
ousted from power by a US sponsored EGYPTIAN military coup.
Domestically, ERDOĞAN alienated
the secular KEMALIST military and civilian political-economic elite via trumped
up trials and media purges. ERDOĞAN’S heavy-handed assault on liberal and
leftist protestors over environmental issues increased Western concern. His
brutal handling of the labor protests following the 2014 SOMA coalmine
disaster, when over 300 workers were killed, further isolated him.
ERDOĞAN’S war on the KURDISH independence
movements in TURKEY, IRAQ and especially in SYRIA, where they were allied with
the US against the jihadi terrorist ISIS, added to domestic unrest and
In order to consolidate his
executive power, ERDOĞAN had first allied with the extensive GULENIST-ISLAMIST networks
in TURKEY in order to undermine the KEMALISTS and then he turned around to
purge his former allies.
Faced with enemies and
adversaries at home and overseas, ERDOĞAN decided on a dual strategy of improving
his ties abroad, especially his links with RUSSIA and ISRAEL while launching a
total war on domestic critics.
COUP AND THE PERMANENT PURGE
ERDOĞAN’S intelligence operatives
within the military command encouraged or even provoked his critics in the
General Staff, who were fed up with his bungling and disastrous policies, to
mount a coup. They gave the rebellious military sufficient space and resources to
provide a semblance of authority while retaining strategic control over the air
force and key ground troops. They may have feigned sympathy to the launching of
a premature uprising …doomed to defeat. Once the heavily infiltrated rebel
units moved, the entire ERDOĞAN operation struck. Hapless conscripts thought
they had been called out for military exercises, only to find themselves
encircled, arrested and even lynched. The dissidents were isolated, their
advances paralyzed, their leaders incapacitated. ERDOĞAN’S loyalist within the
TURKISH Air Force flew the triumphant president into the ‘liberated’ ISTANBUL
International airport to the cheers of his adoring civilian supporters.
ERDOĞAN immediately decreed a
massive purge – in the name of the fatherland. A real coup had indeed taken
place – ERDOĞAN’S total power grab. The entire political, military, judicial
and police system was stripped of personnel within hours. There were over
20,000 arrests, beatings and disappearances. There were calls to re-introduce
the death penalty.
ERDOĞAN’S power grab eliminated
key US assets among the GULENIST and eliminated independent Supreme Court
officials and secular republican officials. The president was free to rebuild
an entire civil, governmental and military apparatus with his own loyalists.
His control over the media and the educational institutions was total.
ERDOĞAN’S pre-emptive coup, purge
and power grab will result in a monolithic state which ERDOĢAN will shape into
his long-sought version of an Islamist regime. The new regime announced a
‘State of Emergency’, which places all TURKS under strict compliance with ERDOĞAN’S
ERDOĞAN’S “New Order” will launch
large-scale operations against the KURDS, with no respect for the SYRIAN or IRAQI
national borders. ERDOĞAN will ensure compliance with Islamist decrees designed
to enforce conformity. He will succeed in imposing a dictatorial ‘Presidential’
regime. And parliament, if necessary will be bypassed; his ‘electoral’ mandate
will be ensured.
In the immediate aftermath, mass
detentions will strengthen the state – and ERDOĞAN’S generals, allied religious
authorities and street thugs will call the shots.
Unleashing force and violence
against his domestic enemies, however, may lead to internal disputes among the
new predators over the spoils of victory. The economic elite may accept the New
Order, but only if and when ERDOĞAN tones down his rhetorical attacks on the US
and the EU.
ERDOĞAN has yet to develop a
strategy on replacing the purged (‘GULENIST’) professionals within the civilian
economy and public bureaucracy – especially the schools and judiciary. The
impetuous reversals of his reckless policy of confrontation with RUSSIA, SYRIA,
ISRAEL, IRAN, IRAQ and the KURDS are likely to generate new layers of
discontent, especially among his current military commanders.
ERDOĞAN’S New Order arises from
the breakdown of civil society and long-term alliances. He may remain in power
in ANKARA but he will be viewed as more of a local political thug than a
partner among the regional big powers.
ERDOĞAN’S external allies will
exploit his isolation and radical bombast to forge lucrative alliances. ISRAEL
will push for favorable gas and oil deals; RUSSIA will insist that ERDOĞAN
abandons his ISIS allies. The US will demand he cease attacks on the KURDS. The
EU will use the ongoing purge and re-institution of the death penalty to
finally declare TURKEY unfit to join the EUROPEAN UNION. Bankers and foreign
investors will wait for ERDOĞAN to stop his rampage over the financial sector
and ‘get serious’ about the economy.
DREAM OF LIFETIME RULER SHIP PRESIDING OVER AN ISLAMIC NEO-OTTOMAN CALIPHATE,
buttressed by street mobs,
praetorian guards and crony capitalists makes for an unstable and unruly TURKEY.
ERDOĞAN’S military loyalists have their own rivalries and ambitions. Now that ERDOĞAN
has established his ‘military road to power’, he has set a clear precedent for
other ‘ERDOĞAN’S’ to take the same route.
In the short-run ERDOĞAN needs to
restart the economy, stabilize the political system and establish a semblance
of international order.
ERDOĞAN cannot and probably will
not prolong tensions with the US over the GULEN affair. GULEN will remain in PENNSYLVANIA,
in the CIA’s ‘regime change’ pocket. Meanwhile, he has eliminated most of the GULENIST
agents capable of working with the US as a fifth-column. The question is
whether he now moves back to his role as a ‘valued’ NATO junior partner, or if
he will launch an intensified war against the US’s strategic KURDISH allies?
ERDOĞAN’S ties with RUSSIA are
precarious. There is no reason for the RUSSIANS to trust him. He has fallen
somewhere between the need for reconciliation with RUSSIA and the desire to
continue his proxy war against the government of SYRIA.
In the end ERDOĞAN may have
secured power and undertaken a vast domestic purge of his enemies, but he has
lost the regional war while bearing the consequences of millions of war refugees
and a deeply entrenched jihadi terrorist threat within TURKEY.
The original source of this
article is Global Research
IS THE REASON EUROPE IS STILL BACKING ERDOGAN
A lot of people in EUROPE are
wondering why political leaders on the continent seem to be ready to agree with
whatever TURKISH President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN says, and do anything he
demands. Many resent ERDOGAN’S hand-twisting approach to the migrant crisis and
worry about TURKEY turning into a dictatorship, plain and simple.
Now, the attempted coup by the TURKISH
military has become the latest event to highlight TURKEY’S major role in the global energymarket and the implications of
any political shakeup in the country for this same market.
The BOSPHORUS is where around 3
percent of daily global crude oil shipments pass, or some 3 million barrels.
This may not be a lot in percentage terms, but for EUROPE it accounts for well
over a quarter of its total crude oil imports. EUROPE imported 1.559 billion
barrels from the former SOVIET UNION last year, or an average of 4 million
barrels daily, according to EUROPEAN Commission figures.
- A MAJOR HUB FOR OIL AND GAS COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA
Besides the BOSPHORUS, TURKEYis also home to two pipelines for
CASPIAN and IRAQI crude, as well as the Southern Gas Corridor, which should
provide EUROPE with an alternative source of natural gas in hopes of
undermining the leading position of RUSSIA’S Gazprom on the EUROPEAN market.
There is also the CEYHAN port, TURKEY’S
main crude export terminal. This is where the two pipelines from AZERBAIJAN and
IRAQ end up, and this is also allegedly where a lot of ISIS oil ends up. In
short, TURKEY is already a major hub for oil and gas coming from the MIDDLE
EAST and CENTRAL ASIA, and its importance in this respect will only grow as new
projects—especially gas projects—come online.
Then there is the SYRIAN war, and TURKEY’Svested interest in it in light of
plans for apipeline that would carry gas from QATAR to TURKEY,and from there, on to EUROPE.
This pipeline would serve the geopolitical interests of SAUDI ARABIA, helping
it to get the upper hand over IRAN, which, now that most of the economic
sanctions against it have been lifted, is eager to return to the global energy
market. It would also, some would argue, serve U.S. geopolitical interests by
once again undermining RUSSIA’S dominance as gas supplier to the EUROPEAN
PIPELINE TO SYRIA UPS ANTE IN PROXY WAR WITH QATAR
agreement to allow IRAN to build a pipeline through its territory and on to
SYRIA is in direct competition with QATAR’S similar designs for a SYRIA
pipeline that would connect to TURKEY. This pipeline is another proxy in the
SYRIAN conflict theater and Iran’s response to its loss of ground here. It is
also a sign of IRAN’S growing foothold in IRAQ. QATAR will respond in kind.
IRAQI Cabinet green lighted IRAN’S $10 billion pipeline project, which will
supply gas from the South Pars field (which is the largest in the world, and
which, as mentioned above, it shares with QATAR) to SYRIA and beyond to other
export markets. There is talk of extending the pipeline to LEBANON.
first part of the pipeline—some 225 kilometers—through IRAQ will reportedly be
completed in June 2013. The pipeline will connect the southern IRANIAN port of
Assolouyeh to IRAQ and then to SYRIA—for now. It will have a 110 million cubic
meter/day capacity. The plan is to give IRAQ 20 million cubic meters/day of
IRANIAN gas for its power plants, with 20-25 million cubic meters/day going to
AND EUROPE’S GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS ARE LARGELY OVERLAPPING
These geopolitical interests
largely overlap with EUROPEAN ones. The EUROPEAN UNION (EU) has made it
abundantly clear that it wants a variety of energy supply sources. Natural gasis especially important as a
cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude. Europe will need more gas in the
years to come, and it doesn’t want it to come from RUSSIA—or at least not so
much of it.
This is why EUROPE is tip-toeing
around ERDOGAN; and this is why EUROPEAN leaders seem to dance to any tune ANKARA’S
boss plays. That’s also why EUROPEAN leaders were not too enthusiastic when the
attempted coup failed, despite official declarations in support of ERDOGAN’S
- THE NEW MASTER OF THE EUROPEAN GAS TAP
They did have enough dignity left
to warn him to watch himself when dealing with the coup plotters; yet one
cannot help but ask: what is EUROPE going to do if ERDOGAN decides to
re-introduce the death penalty, especially for them? What is it going to do if
he uses the coup to further curb civil rights and cement himself at the helm?
Refuse to admit TURKEY into the EUROPEAN UNION? Not a big deal as far as ERDOGANand his vision of a new imperial
TURKEY that dominates the region are concerned.
ERDOGAN will in all likelihood be
the new master of the EUROPEAN gas tap. It’s ironic how democratic EUROPE seems
to be forever dependent on dictators for its energy, at least until it goes
fully renewable, which is not going to happen any time soon.
By Irina Slav via Oilprice.com
Background Information: Click on title to read entire report
RISE OF THE RIGHT IN AUSTRIA COULD BE A POLITICAL TIPPING POINT
On October 2nd, a presidential
election in AUSTRIA could mark the tipping point of changing political tides in
EUROPE and usher in a cycle of right-wing politics.
Constitutional Court ruled that the results of May’s presidential runoff
election were overturned. The Court referred to irregularities in vote
counting, which necessitated a re-run. With immigration quickly becoming one of
the most important issues for EUROPEAN states, this election could set the
precedent for upcoming elections in EUROPE.
Having previously lost by a mere
0.6 percent, NORBERT HOFERof the far right Freedom Party (FPO) stands a good
chance of becoming the first far-right head of state in the EUROPEAN UNION.
What to expect from a Western democracy led by a far-right president in the
ENABLES THE RISE OF THE RIGHT
While the recent BREXIT was a
clear example of a right-wing outcome to a democratic election, the upcoming AUSTRIAN
election may be the tipping point towards a EUROPEAN rightist era.
run in cycles, and the previous cycle of left-leaning governments in EUROPE and
the AMERICAS appear to be coming to an end.
Fears of immigration,
underperforming economies, and a growing sense of disillusion with
international governmental organizations is taking hold. With national
elections scheduled throughout this year and the next, the political scene may
begin to portray new priorities among the populaces.
This will not be a top-down
hostile take-over by right-wing party leaders. As Brexit showed, the push came
from an active voter bloc. The same will hold true for AUSTRIA’S election in
The Constitutional Court’s
decision to hold a repeat of the presidential election is widely regarded as
the right decision from a legal point of view. This type of repeat election is
unprecedented in WESTERN democracies, but when the court found that 14 out of
20 of the constituencies under investigation had irregularities in vote-counting,
it was clear that the results of the May election were compromised. The fact
that the election was decided by 30,863 votes demonstrates that any claim of
vote irregularities had to be taken seriously by the court, or risk allowing a
failure of democracy.
The Constitutional Court did its
duty by calling for a repeat election, even as it assured AUSTRIA another round
of contested presidential elections. Democracy, it can be said, was served as
the judicial branch of government worked to guarantee a third opportunity for
the AUSTRIAN people to be heard.
While many observers worry that
this third round will favor Mr. HOFER, it is difficult to say that this
advantage was won in an undemocratic manner. As BREXIT shows, while the result
may not be what was expected or favored, it is what the voters wanted. The
tides are turning in EUROPE, and that is all a supporter of democracy today may
THE FAR-RIGHT DAMAGE DEMOCRACY?
Serious concerns exist that
far-right politicians elected to positions of leadership will damage the
democratic institutions, which brought them to power. This would run counter to
claims that democracy begets more democracy, but it is not unprecedented.
In EUROPE, a safety net exists in
the high level of interconnectionamong states. There is a general sense
that should a government step too far, the EUROPEAN UNION will intercede at
some point. This can be seen in POLAND currently, and this is likely to
continue should a far-right party come to power in any EUROPEAN state. While by
no means a guarantee, it is probable that the election of a far-right leader
would not lead to a decrease in democratic freedoms among the populace, due to
this safety net.
Domestic politics are
increasingly important as globalization brings the world closer together. AUSTRIA’S
upcoming election, no matter the outcome, will be projected onto future
elections, particularly the US presidential election in November. The growing
trend towards right-wing policies may be a temporary blip on the political radar,
or it may be the beginning of a new political cycle.